Economic Chaos In Afghanistan

Prof. (Dr) Ashok Dubey, a Banker from Kabul, participates in Risk Roundup to discuss the Economic Chaos in Afghanistan.

Economic Chaos in Afghanistan

Afghanistan is in crisis. While corruption, poverty, and insecurity are constants in Afghanistan, this country has also become a symbol of a never-ending war, heavy dependency on foreign aid, and profound political instability.

Progress has not come easy to much of the Afghan civilization. Although a vibrant civil society emerged under the United States security umbrella, it has now totally collapsed. The reason is, unfortunately, Afghanistan once again falls to the Taliban. This sudden turn of geopolitical events has global implications because of the destabilization of the country and the mass migration.

It is essential to understand that the United States has changed Afghan society in many ways. Despite that, the Taliban seems to be committed to re-imposing a system that they brutally employed in the past to control the country. As a result, the civilians are left with either an enduring legacy of fighting the violence and chaos with no hope for sustainable progress and development or flee the country.

So, what is in store for Afghanistan’s economy? According to Prof. Dubey, the President left the country, various ministers left the country, and the governor of the central banks also left the country. It is a deplorable state of affairs, and no one could believe that this could happen. So, things are very turbulent now, and since things were not happening properly, they also had to take the step to come back to India. He further added that no bank had opened yet. There is liquidity issue and security issue. There is a fear that if banks open, armed people will come and take over all the assets to the bank. There is no response from the government… it is total chaos.

Taliban Takeover and Tribalism On The Rise

The reality is that Afghanistan confronts a Taliban takeover. Amid the lack of sustainable security that can hold all territories, the powerless political elites can not unify against the common threats. The state of fear and frustration engulfing Afghanistan today, after decades of war, is brutal.

Anxiety is evident. It is mainly for activists, intellectuals, and freedom lovers who have sought refuge in the cities and have got used to the American way of life. They are all now uncertain about their future as the Taliban is on its way to reestablishing its primitive version of the governance model. In addition, marginalized ethnic communities fear genocide. Perhaps most important, the position of Afghan girls and women now seems hopeless. Their access to education, work, vote, legislation, and the media is in jeopardy. Not only that, the possibility of leaving their homes without a male chaperone is in question.

So, at the core is the question of:

• Why is tribalism on the rise?
• Why is society going backward?
• Are these political challenges or cultural?
• What is preventing progress and development in the country?
• What is required to bring economic and national security?

• Where will the fight-or-flight response of Afghans take humanity?
• What are the growing threats that Afghans observe in their environment locally and nationally?
• What are the Afghan leaders doing to calm those fears?
• What can be done to help Afghans cope with the rising uncertainties?

Answering these questions and understanding the Afghanistan crisis is also an opportunity to question where and when military force should be applied. The use of military power to transform societies is doomed to fail. The reason is that cultural change cannot come by force. The people are generally loyal to their tribes and their way of life. So, as Afghanistan collapses and tribalism grows, the time is now to understand its implication on economic security.

Today, the environment in Afghanistan that can trigger fight or flight response from its citizens can happen anywhere in the world.  The question is whether the choices are limited to either fight or flee. Perhaps we, as a civilized society, can come up with a better alternative. To hear Dr. Dubey’s insights, please watch the Risk Roundup Webcast or hear the Risk Roundup Podcast.

About the Guest

Prof. Dr. Ashok Dubey is a key banker based in Kabul, Afghanistan. He is also an Adjunct Faculty with S P Jain School of Global Management, Dubai campus. Before this, Dr. Dubey was with Emirates Institute of Banking and Financial Studies (EIBFS), teaching & training bankers. He was also Chair of the Academic Research Council of EIBFS, inspiring and motivating faculty and students to conduct research and produce articles/themes that will disseminate knowledge and light in society. He was also Managing Editor of the bi-annual in-house journal, “IJRBF,” published from Dubai.
About the Host of Risk Roundup

Jayshree Pandya (née Bhatt), Ph.D., a leading expert at the intersection of science, technology, and security, is the Founder and Chief Executive Officer of Risk Group LLC. Guided by societal necessities, her research has contributed to more than 100 publications, including four books. In addition, she serves in the C-Suite of leading emerging technology startups, actively applying her scientific background to designing systems that secure the future of humanity.

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